Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:财经专题)
- 经济学人:加密货币已成为终极“沼泽资产”,特朗普的数字权力游戏引发危机
- 云币网怎么注册
- b2b区块链交易平台
- BingX 伸援越南「摩羯」颱風災區,捐贈 10 億越南盾助力災後重建
- 公信宝钱包地址-公信宝钱包地址怎么改
- nice怎么充值
- 十大虚拟货币交易平台app views+
- 欧亿app官网正式版下载 views+
- 易欧app官网下载 views+
- 亿欧app下载 views+
- 全球三大虚拟货币交易平台 views+
- OK交易所官网入口登录 views+
- 数字货币交易所 views+
- 欧亿交易所怎么样。 views+
- 亿欧交易所下载 views+
- okcoin交易平台 views+